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Derby vs Leeds Predictions & Stats 11 Jan 2026

1

Derby - Leeds

01/11/2026 12:00

Pride Park Stadium

England FA Cup

3

Home team - Away team

1

×

2

Betimate

Correct score

Avg. goals

B.O

Score

EFC

38

31

31

1

1 - 0

1.97

2.63

1 - 3

Home team - Away team

Under

Over

Betimate

Avg. goals

B.O

Score

EFC Derby Leeds 01/11/2026 12:00

68.5

31.5

Under

1.97

1.37

Home team - Away team

No

Yes

Betimate

Correct score

Avg. goals

B.O

Score

EFC Derby Leeds 01/11/2026 12:00

61

39

No

1 - 0

1.97

2.21

Home team - Away team

Probability in%

Betimate

Correct score

Avg. goals

B.O

Score

EFC Derby Leeds 01/11/2026 12:00

62%

Away
0

1 - 0

1.97

1.24

Match Preview: Derby vs Leeds in the FA Cup

As anticipation builds for the upcoming FA Cup clash between Derby and Leeds, we turn to the data and predictions from betimate.com for insights. Here’s a breakdown of key criteria that could influence the match outcome.

1x2 Predictions

The 1x2 market shows the likelihood of three possible outcomes: a win for Derby, a draw, or a win for Leeds. The predictions are as follows:

Derby Win: 37.97%
Draw: 30.84%
Leeds Win: 31.01%

According to betimate.com, Derby holds a slight edge with nearly 38% probability of winning, while Leeds and the draw are closely contested at just above 30% each.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

The Over/Under 2.5 goals market indicates expectations for scoring in the match:

Over 2.5 Goals: 31.96%
Under 2.5 Goals: 68.04%

With the predictions showing a significant 68.04% chance of the match finishing with under 2.5 goals, it's expected that this could be a tightly contested encounter, possibly with fewer scoring opportunities.

Both Teams to Score

In the Both Teams to Score market, the data suggests the following:

Yes: 39.41%
No: 60.59%

Here, the prediction from betimate.com leans towards a higher likelihood that one or both teams may struggle to find the net, with a 60.59% probability that at least one team will not score.

Asian Handicap

In the Asian Handicap market, the current prediction for Derby's performance is specified as follows:

Home (Derby) 0: 37.97%

This means that Derby is favored to secure at least a draw, again reinforcing their relatively stronger position heading into the match.

All data and predictions detailed above have been compiled from betimate.com and should be taken into account as fans gear up for what promises to be an exciting FA Cup showdown between Derby and Leeds.

Show More Show Less

Prediction 1X2
Over/Under
Handicap Asian

Odd

Drop

1

x

2

Betfair Money

1x2

6

5.10

4.00

1.52

17% (243548.00$)

5% (75534.00$)

78% (1109120.00$)

Odd

Drop

Over

Under

Betfair Money

2.5

21

0.86

1.02

2.75

2

1.06

0.82

Odd

Drop

Home

Away

Betfair Money

0.75

11

1.14

0.76

1

6

0.94

0.96

Elo data of Derby in England FA Cup

Elo	Win	Lose	Draw
1499	10	11	6

Elo data of Leeds in England FA Cup

Elo	Win	Lose	Draw
1523	8	11	2

General Probability & odds

Market

Probability

Odd

Home win

37.82%

2.64

Draw

31.01%

3.22

Away win

31.01%

3.22

Under 2.5 Goals

68.42%

1.46

Over 2.5 Goals

31.42%

3.18

BTTS Yes

39.03%

2.56

BTTS No

60.81%

1.64

Probality by diff Goals for Home team

Diff Goals (Home/Away)

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Probability

2.29%

8.04%

20.1%

31.01%

22.93%

10.46%

3.4%

Probality by total goals

Total goals

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Probability

13.92%

27.45%

27.05%

17.77%

8.73%

3.45%

1.12%

Head to head

29.12.24

Derby

Leeds

CH

07.12.24

Leeds

Derby

CH

Win

Draw

Lost

Derby Last matches

04.01.26

Derby

Wrexham

CH

01.01.26

Derby

Middlesbrough

CH

29.12.25

Leicester

Derby

CH

26.12.25

Birmingham

Derby

CH

20.12.25

Derby

Portsmouth

CH

15.12.25

Sheff Wed

Derby

CH

10.12.25

Derby

Millwall

CH

06.12.25

Derby

Leicester

CH

29.11.25

Middlesbrough

Derby

CH

25.11.25

Swansea

Derby

CH

Win

Draw

Lost

More

Leeds Last matches

07.01.26

Newcastle

Leeds

EPL

04.01.26

Leeds

Man Utd

EPL

01.01.26

Liverpool

Leeds

EPL

28.12.25

Sunderland

Leeds

EPL

20.12.25

Leeds

Crystal Palace

EPL

14.12.25

Brentford

Leeds

EPL

06.12.25

Leeds

Liverpool

EPL

03.12.25

Leeds

Chelsea

EPL

29.11.25

Man City

Leeds

EPL

23.11.25

Leeds

Aston Villa

EPL

Win

Draw

Lost

More

Derby home matches

04.01.26

Derby

Wrexham

CH

01.01.26

Derby

Middlesbrough

CH

20.12.25

Derby

Portsmouth

CH

10.12.25

Derby

Millwall

CH

06.12.25

Derby

Leicester

CH

22.11.25

Derby

Watford

CH

04.11.25

Derby

Hull

CH

25.10.25

Derby

QPR

CH

21.10.25

Derby

Norwich

CH

04.10.25

Derby

Southampton

CH

Win

Draw

Lost

More

Leeds away matches

07.01.26

Newcastle

Leeds

EPL

01.01.26

Liverpool

Leeds

EPL

28.12.25

Sunderland

Leeds

EPL

14.12.25

Brentford

Leeds

EPL

29.11.25

Man City

Leeds

EPL

09.11.25

Nottm Forest

Leeds

EPL

01.11.25

Brighton

Leeds

EPL

18.10.25

Burnley

Leeds

EPL

20.09.25

Wolverhampton

Leeds

EPL

13.09.25

Fulham

Leeds

EPL

Win

Draw

Lost

More

Derby home upcoming matches

17.01.26

Preston

Derby

EC

20.01.26

Charlton

Derby

EC

23.01.26

Derby

West Brom

EC

30.01.26

Bristol City

Derby

EC

07.02.26

Derby

Ipswich

EC

More

Leeds away upcoming matches

17.01.26

Leeds

Fulham

EPL

26.01.26

Everton

Leeds

EPL

31.01.26

Leeds

Arsenal

EPL

06.02.26

Leeds

Nottm Forest

EPL

10.02.26

Chelsea

Leeds

EPL

More

1

Goals

3

34%

Ball Possession

66%

7

Shots

22

2

On target

11

5

Off target

11

4

Saves

0

5

Corners

5

7

Fouls

3

0

Offsides

2

0

Penalties

1

1

Yellow cards

1

0

Yellow/red cards

0

0

Reds cards

0

Starting Lineups

1

Jacob Widell Zetterstrom (Guard)

Karl Darlow (Guard)

26

6

Sondre Klingen Langas (Defender)

Jaka Bijol (Defender)

15

4

Danny Batth (Defender)

Sebastiaan Bornauw (Defender)

23

3

Craig Forsyth (Defender)

Ethan Ampadu (Defender)

4

23

Joe Ward (Midfielder)

Jack Harrison (Midfielder)

20

29

Oscar Fraulo (Midfielder)

Ao Tanaka (Midfielder)

22

42

Bobby Clark (Midfielder)

Ilia Gruev (Midfielder)

44

27

Lewis Travis (Midfielder)

Noah Okafor (Forward)

19

15

Lars-Jorgen Salvesen (Forward)

Gnonto Wilfried (Forward)

29

11

Corey Blackett-Taylor (Forward)

Lukas Nmecha (Forward)

14

25

Ben Brereton (Forward)

Joel Piroe (Forward)

10

Substitutes

12

Richard O'Donnell (Guard)

Lucas Perri (Guard)

1

35

Curtis Nelson (Defender)

Pascal Struijk (Defender)

5

20

Callum Elder (Defender)

Sam Byram (Defender)

25

18

David Ozoh (Midfielder)

James Justin (Defender)

24

37

Owen Eames (Midfielder)

Sean Longstaff (Midfielder)

8

32

Ebou Adams (Midfielder)

Sam Chambers (Midfielder)

42

10

Rhian Brewster (Forward)

Anton Stach (Midfielder)

18

7

Patrick Agyemang (Forward)

Brenden Aaronson (Midfielder)

11

14

Andreas Weimann (Forward)

Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Forward)

9

No data

#

Name

GA

PK

MP

MP

MPG

1

Tyrese Shade Tyrese Shade Burton Albion Burton Albion

5

0

2

170

34

2

Ashley Fletcher Ashley Fletcher Blackpool Blackpool

4

1

3

256

64

3

Danny Elliott Danny Elliott Macclesfield Macclesfield

4

1

1

120

30

4

Aaron Drinan Aaron Drinan Swindon Swindon

3

1

2

178

60

5

Jorgen Strand Larsen Jorgen Strand Larsen Wolverhampton Wolverhampton

3

0

1

74

25

6

Emil Riis Emil Riis Bristol City Bristol City

3

0

1

83

28

7

Jaze Kabia Jaze Kabia Grimsby Grimsby

3

0

3

165

55

8

Isaac Hutchinson Isaac Hutchinson Cheltenham Cheltenham

3

0

2

180

60

9

Fabio Tavares Fabio Tavares Burton Albion Burton Albion

3

0

3

120

40

10

Michael Mellon Michael Mellon Oldham Oldham

3

0

2

142

48

England FA Cup Fixtures

01/12/2026 19:45

01/20/2026 19:45

England FA Cup Results

01/11/2026 16:30

01/11/2026 14:30

01/11/2026 14:30

01/11/2026 14:30

01/11/2026 14:30

01/11/2026 14:30

01/11/2026 14:00

01/11/2026 12:00

01/10/2026 20:00

01/10/2026 17:45

Weston Super Mare