2022/2023 UEFA Champions League final: Manchester City or Inter Milan?

Eighteen years after Liverpool's historic triumph in Istanbul, Manchester City, who are aiming for a treble, will endeavor to replicate the achievements of their counterparts from Merseyside in the same city. They will go head-to-head against Inter Milan in the final of the 2022-23 Champions League on Saturday night.

These two colossal clubs will meet in a competitive match for the first time at the Ataturk Olympic Stadium. They enter the final with contrasting domestic fortunes, as Pep Guardiola's side has added two more English football trophies to their collection, while Inter Milan's pursuit of the Serie A title was relatively short-lived.

3 factors determining results of 2022/2023 UEFA Champions League final

Haaland vs Inter defense

Certainly, the first focal point that deserves mentioning is Erling Haaland. Even in his debut season in England, Haaland managed to score an impressive 52 goals across all competitions, including 12 goals in the Champions League, and he shattered numerous records along the way.

Despite initial doubts regarding his compatibility with Pep Guardiola's tactical system, Haaland has showcased his proficiency both as a lethal finisher inside the box and as a player capable of holding up play with his back to the opponent's goal. By attracting the attention of defenders, he creates space for Man City's other attacking threats to exploit, actively contributing to the team's overall attacking prowess.

Haaland vs Inter defense will be an important factor in 2022/2023 UEFA Champions League final

In the forthcoming Champions League final, it will be midfielder Francesco Acerbi's responsibility to contain Haaland. Undoubtedly, this poses a significant challenge for the 35-year-old player. Inter Milan might find it beneficial to review how Antonio Rudiger successfully neutralized Haaland in the first leg of the semi-final against Chelsea. Nevertheless, Acerbi alone cannot shoulder this task entirely; the three central defenders of the Nerazzurri will need to provide mutual support if they aim to contain Haaland effectively.

Furthermore, to counter Man City's number 9, coach Simone Inzaghi could instruct Inter's midfielders to drop deeper, limiting the available space for Man City to exploit and reducing their opportunities to locate Haaland.

Midfield Battle: De Bruyne Vs Brozovic

Ilkay Gundogan may be regarded as Man City's most threatening midfielder, especially after his remarkable brace against Manchester United in the FA Cup final. However, it is Kevin De Bruyne who holds the key for Man City with an impressive tally of 10 goals and an astonishing 31 assists this season. The team will heavily rely on De Bruyne's abilities to unlock the Inter defense.

De Bruyne Vs Brozovic will be an important factor in 2022/2023 UEFA Champions League final

Coach Inzaghi made a strategic shift by abandoning the high-pressing approach that yielded unsatisfactory results, opting instead for a more compact formation and a counter-attacking style. Inter will deploy a 5-man midfield, operating closely alongside the central defenders. This alteration has proven effective, with Inter triumphing in 11 out of their last 12 matches across all competitions. Nevertheless, their sternest test will come when they confront De Bruyne's relentless attempts to create opportunities in the midfield.

This is where the pivotal role of Marcelo Brozovic, Inter's primary midfielder, becomes crucial. Brozovic's contribution is not only significant in disrupting the opponent's control of the game but also in dropping deep to receive and distribute the ball for Inter, enabling the team to escape the pressure imposed by Man City. The responsibility on Brozovic's shoulders is undeniably immense.

Inter's Attack

Man City, as strong contenders for the title, have maintained possession of over 60% in the Champions League this season. This might be favorable for Inter Milan as they have excelled in Serie A 2022/23 with their adeptness at executing counter-attacks. The attacking duo of Edin Dzeko and Lautaro Martinez has displayed a fruitful partnership for Inter. Martinez, who has scored an impressive 28 goals this season, is eager for further glory after his triumph in the prestigious World Cup championship.

Inter's Attack will be an important factor in 2022/2023 UEFA Champions League final

Meanwhile, at the age of 37, Dzeko recognizes that this could be his final opportunity to achieve Champions League success after showcasing his brilliance in Europe's top three leagues over the past 16 years. The Bosnian striker played a significant role in helping Man City secure the Premier League title twice and an FA Cup. Dzeko is likely to pose a constant threat from set-pieces, although he will have to contend with the formidable defender Ruben Dias.

Martinez, on the other hand, will be a persistent menace for Man City's defense, and it will be crucial for John Stones, in his defensive midfield role, to pay special attention to the talented Argentine striker. Additionally, Stones will also need to remain vigilant regarding the creative abilities of midfielder Nicolo Barella, who possesses a knack for generating unpredictable attacking moves.

An easy victory for Manchester City?

Many individuals are inclined to believe that Man City will effortlessly secure victory in Istanbul, overlooking the fact that Inter Milan is a team adorned with championship qualities and the valor of a distinguished club that has been crowned champions three times on this very stage. However, it seems that they have been underestimated by the media and online pundits just prior to the game.

The Daily Mail, for instance, boldly claimed that Inter had "no chance" in the Champions League final against Man City. In reality, such information disseminated by numerous British tabloids serves primarily to ignite the nationalistic pride of football fans in the country, a pattern often observed whenever a British team enters a tournament or a final.

Man City is higher-rated than Inter Milan

Even within the British media, debates have emerged questioning whether this is the most lopsided matchup in a Champions League final. Pundit Jamie Carragher has asserted that Inter is "inferior" to Man City, while Michael Owen adamantly argues that no Inter player deserves a place in Pep Guardiola's starting XI.

To be fair, Inter may not have succumbed to the pressure, but could they be harboring fear? "I fear murderers and thieves," stated center-back Alessandro Bastoni, "but not the Man City striker, no matter how lethal his shot may be. We need to approach the game with a clear mindset." There appears to be a calm confidence brewing within Inter at the moment. They were widely written off, not expected to progress beyond the group stage alongside Bayern and Barcelona. However, they defied expectations by relegating Barcelona to the Europa League and securing their place in the final.

Special statistics support Inter

Croatian Factor

In the 2013 Champions League final, Mario Mandzukic scored for Dortmund, contributing to Bayern Munich's championship victory and establishing an astonishing "tradition." In the past 10 Champions League finals, the winning team has consistently included Croatian players in their squad.

These Croatian players encompass Mandzukic (2013 with Bayern), Luka Modric (2014, 2022 with Real Madrid), Modric and Mateo Kovacic (2016, 2017, 2018 with Real Madrid), Ivan Rakitic (2015 with Barcelona), Dejan Lovren (2019 with Liverpool), Ivan Perisic (2020 with Bayern), and Kovacic again (2021 with Chelsea).

Marcelo Brozovic - Croatian Factor brings hope for Inter

When observing the squads of Man City and Inter this year, there is only one Croatian player, midfielder Marcelo Brozovic. If the trend of the "Croatian factor" persists, then the championship may tilt towards coach Simone Inzaghi's team.

In the absence of Croatian players, Man City can find solace in the French element. Excluding Liverpool in 2019, the champions of the last 11 out of 12 Champions League finals have included French players in their squad. In this year's final, Inter does not have any French players, while Man City boasts Aymeric Laporte and Riyad Mahrez, who possess dual nationalities, including French citizenship.

Victory for clubs have more achievement

The Champions League serves as a platform to honor teams with illustrious records in this arena, and this statement holds true. In the past 10 Champions League finals, victory has consistently favored the team with a richer history of achievements. For instance, in the previous season, Real Madrid (with 13 Champions League titles) faced Liverpool (with 6 championships). Consequently, Real Madrid secured their 14th championship courtesy of Vinicius' solitary goal.

This pattern has persisted over the past 11 years, ever since Chelsea's unexpected triumph over Bayern in the 2012 final. That year, Chelsea had never won the Champions League, while Bayern had accumulated 4 titles. However, Roberto Di Matteo's team was crowned victors through a tremendously dramatic penalty shootout.

Inter is the team having better achievement in UEFA Champions League competitions

In this year's final, Man City finds themselves as the team yet to claim the Champions League, while Inter has emerged victorious on 3 occasions in the C1/Champions League, most recently in the 2009/10 season. History seems to be against Pep Guardiola's team, as they also fall under the "lower titles, lose" rule.

Two years ago, in the 2021 Champions League final, Man City suffered a 0-1 defeat against Chelsea, who had triumphed in the 2011/12 season. Regardless of their strength, Man City remains devoid of a Champions League title thus far. History tends to be unfavourable towards those who lack a title in Europe's most prestigious arena.

No having 2 champions in a city

Throughout the history of the Champions League, only the city of Milan can boast of having two champions. Milan has secured victory on 7 occasions, while Inter has clinched the title 3 times. Other football powerhouses in different cities have not achieved the same feat.

In Madrid, Real Madrid holds a remarkable record of 14 Champions League titles, whereas Atletico Madrid has only reached the final in the 2013/14 and 2015/16 seasons. In London, aside from Chelsea, no other team from the city has emerged victorious in the Champions League. Arsenal came agonizingly close to the championship when they lost to Barcelona in the final of the 2005/06 season, while Tottenham faced a similar fate against Liverpool in the 2019 final.

Madrid, London, and Manchester have all had the opportunity to see a second champion emerge from their respective cities, but each time they were thwarted in the final match. Atletico Madrid, Arsenal, Tottenham, and even Man City themselves have fallen victim to this barrier. In 2021, Guardiola's formidable squad suffered an unexpected 0-1 defeat to Chelsea in the Champions League final.

Will history persist in rejecting Man City this time, or will Manchester follow in the footsteps of Milan to become a city with two Champions League winners (considering that Man United has secured three championships)?

Betimate's prediction about Manchester City vs Inter Milan

With Manchester City boasting the highest average ball recovery position in the Champions League this season (47.2m from their own goal) and Inter Milan doing so closest to their own goal (38.4m), we may witness a classic battle between attack and defense in Istanbul.

Inter Milan's counter-attacks can be devastating, and their recent impressive goal-scoring form should enhance their chances of breaching the Manchester City defense. However, containing Guardiola's formidable attacking lineup will present a formidable challenge.

Despite Inter's previous defensive solidity in European competitions, Manchester City possesses the attacking prowess required to finally achieve European glory and join their city rivals, Manchester United, in the prestigious treble-winning club. We predict a 2-1 victory for Manchester City.