Rafael Leao - AC Milan's only hope in UEFA Champions League

"Hell is empty, all the devils are here!" The impressive tifo displayed by fans before last Wednesday's Champions League derby against Inter should have been the defining moment of AC Milan's week. However, what stood out instead was the astonishing scene of Stefano Pioli and his players receiving a lecture from an ultra on Saturday evening, as they silently stood in front of the away section at Stadio Alberto Picco.

Were they being threatened or encouraged? Both Pioli and club president Paolo Scaroni insist it was the latter, and the very next day, another group of fans at Milanello publicly showed their support. However, the Italian Football Federation (FIGC) seems uncertain, as they have already initiated an investigation into the spontaneous pep talk following the setback against Spezia.

What is already evident, though, is that Milan's campaign is teetering on the verge of complete collapse.

The belief in a spectacular comeback

In an interview with DAZN after a surprising 2-0 defeat that has pushed the Rossoneri down to fifth place in the Serie A standings, four points behind the Champions League positions with only three rounds remaining, Pioli confessed, "There are not many opportunities left to salvage this season and turn it into a positive one. We must maintain the belief that we have a chance to overcome Inter."

The return of Rafael Leao should provide some encouragement, at least, for what could be a remarkable Champions League comeback for Milan. They currently trail Inter 2-0 after the first leg last week. It is worth noting that the only team to have ever won a semi-final after losing the first leg by a two-goal margin or more is Liverpool, who famously overturned a 3-0 deficit against Barcelona on an unforgettable night at Anfield in 2019.

AC Milan lost 2-0 when confronting Inter Milan in the frist leg of UEFA Champions League semi-finals

While Divock Origi played a significant role in that dramatic turnaround, it would be overly optimistic to expect a similar performance from the Belgian at San Siro on Tuesday night. His time at Milan since joining on a free transfer last summer has been largely disappointing.

In fact, if the past week has taught us anything, it is that Milan's attacking options are shockingly lacking in depth.

Rafael Leao's return - important factor for Champions League's great comebacks

The fundamental to Milan's forward line  

As the weekend demonstrated once more, Pioli is clearly unable to cope without Leao, and to a lesser extent, Olivier Giroud. In the match against Spezia, Giroud was kept on the bench with the expectation that Milan could manage without their regular number 9 and give the 36-year-old striker some well-deserved rest. However, Ante Rebic, who filled in up front, along with Alexis Saelemaekers, Brahim Diaz, and Origi as Leao's replacements, failed to register a single shot on target collectively.

Rafael Leao is a fundamental to Milan's forward line

Giroud's comeback to the starting lineup will undoubtedly provide Milan with a crucial focal point in their attack against Inter. However, it is Leao who plays a fundamental role in Milan's forward line. Without this exceptional talent, whom Alessio Tacchinardi has compared to a young Thierry Henry in terms of raw ability, the Rossoneri significantly lack the same level of offensive threat.

"The attributes of the two players [Rafael Leao and Thierry Henry] are identical: you can observe their pace in one-on-one situations, and they consistently utilize their speed to outmaneuver the opposition's defense," the former Juventus midfielder stated to Tuttosport. "I received heavy criticism on social media for drawing this comparison. However, if you simply compare the videos, there's nothing more to be said: they are indistinguishable."

Finding himself again

However, as Tacchinardi, Pioli, and former Milan director Zvonimir Boban have pointed out, there are occasions when Leao lacks the necessary discipline and determination to become one of the world's top players. This is perplexing, considering he idolizes Cristiano Ronaldo, a player widely recognized for his work ethic.

Consequently, Leao can sometimes become invisible, not only during matches but for extended periods of the season. At one stage this year, he went almost three months without scoring a goal, which, to be brutally honest, is unacceptable for a player blessed with such remarkable natural talent. Milan suffered five Serie A defeats during that goal drought, which is why their chances of qualifying for the Champions League next season are genuinely at risk.

Rafael Leao said that he has himself again when playing for Milan

Concerns arose that the 23-year-old had been affected by the ongoing rumors surrounding his future. However, he responded to the growing criticism by showcasing his immense talent and dismantling Napoli at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in early April.

In an interview with DAZN after scoring two exceptional goals in a remarkable 4-0 victory over the dominant league leaders, he stated, "I only pay attention to my coach and those who work at Milan. The opinions of those outside the club don't interest me. If anything, it motivates me even more. I went through a challenging period, but now I've rediscovered myself thanks to my coach and my teammates."

Rescuing Rossoneri

However, Leao undeniably possesses the capability to completely alter the course of this tie. When he hits his stride, there are few sights more intimidating in modern football. There is an expectation that he will be fully fit and, perhaps more significantly, completely focused now that his future seems to have been resolved.

In fact, the only positive news for Milan fans last week arrived on the day of the derby defeat. Reports circulated widely that a breakthrough had finally been achieved in the club's lengthy negotiations with Leao for a new contract. An extension until 2028 might even be announced following the second leg this week.

While complications related to his time at Sporting were present, it is unsurprising that an agreement has reportedly been reached between the two parties. Leao's affection for the club is beyond question. Just last month, he stated to Sky Sport Italia, "I feel at home in Milan and I want to continue aiding the team." At this moment, the Rossoneri are in dire need of rescue.

Inter's derby domination concern

The true Rafael Leao emerged during Milan's Champions League quarter-final clash against the same opponent, Sporting CP. The young talent, who came through Sporting CP's academy, reminded fans of Ruud Gullit as he delivered a stunning assist to Giroud in the crucial 1-1 draw in Naples. This result paved the way for a highly anticipated Derby della Madonnina in the semi-finals.

Inter's derby domination

Nevertheless, Milan will require something extraordinary to secure a spot in the final. Inter not only possess a comfortable lead and the advantage of playing at 'home', but they also enter the match on a remarkable seven-game winning streak across all competitions.

What is even more significant from a psychological standpoint is that the Nerazzurri have emerged victorious in the previous three Milan derbies, scoring six goals without conceding a single one in the process.

Jobs on the line

Ahead of the derby, job security is genuinely at stake for many individuals. If Milan were to be eliminated by their city rivals and subsequently fail to secure a top-four finish, there is a real possibility that both Pioli and technical director Paolo Maldini could be dismissed, despite their instrumental roles in the resurgence of the Rossoneri over the past four years.

As the unexpected events in Spezia last Saturday emphasized, the fans are growing increasingly frustrated. However, the club's financial department will be even more concerned if Champions League football is not secured at San Siro for the upcoming season.

Jobs on the line

Given the high-pressure nature of the situation, it might seem unfair for Milan to place all their hopes solely on Leao. However, truth be told, that is the situation they now find themselves in. At the start of the season, the winger expressed his desire to prove himself in the Champions League after being a standout performer in a successful Scudetto campaign. Throughout the Rossoneri's journey to the semi-finals, we have witnessed glimpses of his brilliance and talent.

However, on Tuesday, Milan desperately require a complete performance from a player whom Boban has previously claimed has only fulfilled half of his potential. Their season arguably hinges on it.