Premier League 2023-24 Season Predictions: Who Will Win the Title?

Title Race, Champions League Qualifiers, and Survival Battle Predictions

As we delve into the Premier League's upcoming season, the burning question remains: Who will emerge as the champion in 2023-24? Alongside that, we explore which clubs will secure coveted Champions League spots and which ones will be in the fight for Premier League survival.

Using our trusted Opta supercomputer, we ran 10,000 simulations of the 2023-24 Premier League season to gain insights into how the campaign might unfold. Surprisingly, we witnessed 10 different teams lifting the Premier League title at least once. While Manchester City dominated the charts, it's worth mentioning that Brentford's Thomas Frank led his side to victory in one of the simulations, giving Brentford fans a glimmer of hope.

Stay tuned as we present all the key findings from our Opta supercomputer's extensive simulations, providing you with a comprehensive outlook on the Premier League's exciting 2023-24 season.

Manchester City Dominates

In our extensive 10,000 simulations of the 2023-24 Premier League season, Manchester City emerged as the most dominant force. Pep Guardiola's team secured the title in a staggering 90.2% of the simulations, setting them on course to become the first club to win the English top-flight title for four consecutive seasons.

This 90.2% figure stands out as the highest among all top five European leagues in our Opta supercomputer predictions for 2023-24. Bayern Munich comes in second, but their 69.3% likelihood of winning the Bundesliga title pales in comparison. Does this indicate that the Premier League has become the most competitive of Europe's major leagues?

While Manchester City's supremacy is evident, Arsenal showed promising signs in their previous season, achieving their best Premier League finish in 19 years. Although they fell short by five points, finishing with 84 points compared to Manchester City's 89, Mikel Arteta's side proved to be formidable challengers. With more experience of the title race, Arsenal hopes for a different outcome in 2023-24. Nevertheless, the FA Community Shield victory against City may not bode well, as history indicates only one of the last 12 winners of the seasonal curtain-raiser has gone on to win the league title.

Our pre-season simulations place Arsenal at 4.1% probability of clinching the Premier League title, narrowly ahead of Liverpool at 3.6%.

Liverpool, the only team to break Manchester City's title streak in the last six seasons, underperformed in 2022-23. Finishing fifth and missing out on Champions League football for the first time since 2016-17, Jürgen Klopp's side faces challenges ahead. Their 67-point tally was their lowest since 2015-16, a considerable 22 points adrift from Man City's title-winning total.

While Manchester United improved under Erik ten Hag's management last season, securing a third-place finish and winning the League Cup, a serious title challenge in 2023-24 appears unlikely according to our simulations. Only 1.7% of our pre-season Premier League simulations favor Manchester United as champions, yet there is a silver lining for United fans as it's an improvement from their 0.2% probability ahead of 2022-23.

Other clubs like Newcastle (0.22%), Chelsea (0.13%), Brighton (0.08%), Aston Villa (0.04%), Tottenham (0.01%), and Brentford (0.01%) also secured the title at least once in the pre-season simulations. However, fans of these clubs should be cautious not to set high expectations for a serious title challenge in 2023-24, given the current circumstances.

Dominance of Leading Contenders

Given the strong performances of the leading contenders for the Premier League title, it is no surprise that these four clubs also dominate the Opta supercomputer's simulations for a top-four finish in the 2023-24 season.

Across our extensive 10,000 simulations, Manchester City remarkably finished outside the top four only 0.1% of the time, and their lowest position was eighth (perhaps in the season Brentford claimed the title?). Arsenal emerged as the runners-up (33.6%) more frequently than any other team in our simulations, securing a top-four spot and UEFA Champions League qualification in 79.9% of cases.

Liverpool's chances of qualifying for the UCL through a top-four finish stood at 76.8% in our simulations, followed by Manchester United at 63.2%.

Although Chelsea faced a disastrous 2022-23 campaign, the arrival of Mauricio Pochettino could bring positive changes. While winning the Premier League title appears unlikely (with only 130 instances out of 10,000 simulations), regaining Champions League status remains vital. The Opta supercomputer envisioned Chelsea clinching a top-four spot in 16% of simulations, ranking sixth, trailing behind Newcastle United at 24.8%.

Under Roberto De Zerbi's guidance, Brighton experienced an excellent 2022-23 campaign, finishing sixth and securing UEFA Europa League football. Now, the question remains whether they can juggle midweek European commitments alongside the busy Premier League schedule. Our simulations foresee Brighton achieving a top-four finish in 12.3% of instances and landing in the top six again 35.3% of the time.

Tottenham, under the leadership of Ange Postecoglou, enters the new season with high expectations after his successful tenure at Celtic, winning Scottish Premiership titles in consecutive years. Although another league title seems improbable according to our Opta supercomputer's calculations, a top-four finish would be a promising start. Our simulations show Spurs achieving this in 9.5% of cases, with their most common finishing position being eighth (12.3%).

Lastly, it's worth noting that Everton secured a top-four finish in five of the 10,000 Opta supercomputer simulations. The prospect of Sean Dyche leading the club in the Champions League is exciting for fans.

Luton Town Faces Tough Challenge

In the Opta supercomputer's pre-season simulations for the 2023-24 Premier League season, Luton Town found themselves in the relegation zone more frequently than any other club, which may not come as a surprise to their fans. As the underdog, Luton embraces this challenge, but their task is far from easy.

Returning to the top-flight after a long absence since 1991-92, Luton faces predictions of a tough season ahead. Some even suggested they could rival Derby County's record-lowest Premier League points tally of 11 from 2007-08. However, the Opta supercomputer's simulations show a more promising outlook, with an average points tally of 34.2, higher than Southampton's 25 and Leeds United's 31 from the previous season.

Joining Luton in the relegation mix, Sheffield United, who earned promotion from the Championship last season, faced relegation in nearly half of the simulations (49%), slightly edging out Bournemouth at 48.9%.

Bournemouth managed to survive their first season back in the Premier League last season, but they face new challenges under Andoni Iraola, who replaced Gary O'Neil as manager. Despite Iraola's impressive track record at Rayo Vallecano, Bournemouth will need to work wonders to avoid relegation, according to the Opta supercomputer's predictions.

Surprisingly, Burnley is tipped to avoid relegation by the Opta supercomputer, despite facing a tough start against Vincent Kompany's former side, reigning champions Manchester City. Nevertheless, Burnley still found themselves in the bottom three in 33.2% of simulations, narrowly ahead of Nottingham Forest (33.8%) and Everton (34.4%).

The last season witnessed all three newly promoted teams staying in the Premier League, a rarity that occurred only three times before (in 2001-02, 2011-12, and 2017-18). However, in the pre-season simulations, Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth, and Fulham were the most frequently predicted relegation sides by the Opta supercomputer. In football, miracles can indeed happen.

Premier League 2023-24 Simulated Table

Based on 10,000 simulations of the upcoming Premier League season, we have calculated the average points tally for each club to determine their positions in the Opta supercomputer's predicted table. Here are the results:

Favourites for the Title: Manchester City is the favorite to secure their fourth successive Premier League title.

Top Four Favourites: Arsenal, Liverpool, and Manchester United are the top contenders for the top four positions.

Relegation Favourites: Luton Town, Sheffield United, and Bournemouth are the favorites for relegation.