Eight Reasons Why the Premier League Title Race Isn't Finished

After much of the Premier League title race spent as the pursuer, Manchester City now find themselves as the frontrunners. The treble-winners kicked off the weekend with a commanding 5-1 victory over Luton Town before settling in to watch Arsenal and Liverpool in action.

Sunday turned out to be a dream scenario for Pep Guardiola's side, as Liverpool suffered a surprising 1-0 defeat at home to Crystal Palace, followed by Aston Villa securing a 2-0 win against Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium.

With 32 matches played, City now lead Arsenal and Liverpool by two points, positioning themselves at the forefront of the title race. Historically, this stage of the season is where Guardiola's teams excel, as evidenced by their impeccable record in the final stretch of previous title-winning campaigns. However, despite pundits suggesting that the title is already City's to lose, the captivating battle between the three contenders is far from decided and promises more drama in the weeks to come.

Two points & six games

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Absolutely, the Premier League has a rich history of dramatic twists and turns in the title race, making it unwise to write off contenders like Arsenal and Liverpool at this stage. Even with Manchester City currently holding a slim two-point lead, there are still six rounds of games remaining, leaving plenty of room for unexpected outcomes.

History serves as a stark reminder of the league's unpredictability. Manchester United's infamous collapse in the 2011-12 season, surrendering an eight-point lead with six games to go, stands as a testament to the dramatic nature of the Premier League. Similarly, Newcastle's stunning fall from grace in 1995-96, relinquishing a 12-point advantage, and United's own setback in 1997-98, squandering an 11-point lead to Arsenal, showcase the league's capacity for surprise.

Champions League distraction

Arsenal and Manchester City are poised on the edge of their Champions League quarter-final second legs this week, with the outcomes holding significant implications for the title race.

Should City triumph over Real Madrid while Arsenal succumb to Bayern Munich, and with Liverpool facing a probable exit from the Europa League following their unexpected 3-0 defeat to Atalanta, Pep Guardiola's squad will face three additional fixtures compared to their rivals before the season's end. This includes both legs of the Champions League semi-final and Saturday's FA Cup semi-final against Chelsea. Such a demanding schedule could further strain City's fatigued squad during the crucial title run-in.

Conversely, another heartbreaking exit from the pinnacle of European football could profoundly impact City and Guardiola psychologically, potentially undermining their confidence at a pivotal moment in the campaign.

Four away matches

It's been noted that Manchester City have a comparatively more straightforward run-in among the three title contenders, with only Tottenham Hotspur posing as a top-seven opponent (more on that shortly). However, four out of City's final six fixtures are away from home, highlighting a potential vulnerability as Guardiola's side has shown relative weakness on the road.

City has stumbled in a third of their away matches this season, suffering three losses and securing only two draws out of 15. This stands in stark contrast to their dominant performances at the Etihad Stadium, where they have claimed victory in 13 out of 17 league encounters and remained unbeaten in all competitions since November 2022.

City hate playing Spurs

Every team has their nemesis, and for Manchester City, it's Tottenham Hotspur, especially when playing away. Guardiola's initial defeat in England occurred at the former White Hart Lane, and he suffered five consecutive losses without scoring a goal at the modern Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

While City broke their curse at N17 by eliminating Spurs from the FA Cup in January, their record still stands at one goal scored in six matches there. Therefore, visiting Tottenham for their penultimate game of the season on May 16 is far from ideal for Guardiola's side.

At their limits

City may usually handle grueling fixture lists better than most teams, but the relentless schedule is undeniably taking its toll on their squad. Guardiola conceded last Friday that they are "in big, big trouble."

Walker has been sidelined since sustaining an injury during England duty and remains uncertain for the second leg against Madrid. Stones missed the Luton victory and has battled injuries throughout the season, while Ake is currently undergoing treatment. Even Ederson has recently returned from a month-long absence.

Conversely, Rodri, who has logged more minutes than anyone else, requested rest after the 3-3 draw with Madrid. His wish was granted as he sat out the Luton match. However, he is unlikely to receive another opportunity to rest before the season's end and has displayed signs of fatigue. He is not alone, and as the matches continue to pile up, the players will be pushed to their limits.

Haaland slowing down

Erling Haaland reached the 20-league-goal mark for the season with a penalty against Luton, yet there's a palpable feeling that he hasn't maintained the goal-scoring prowess he displayed last season. Teams seem to have figured out how to contain him, and Haaland has often been singled out for his lackluster performances during City's campaign.

As the season enters its crucial stage, with stakes high at both ends of the table, teams are likely to adopt more defensive and cautious approaches. This defensive setup will pose challenges for Haaland, who excels in exploiting open spaces. While City boasts a variety of attacking options beyond their prolific striker, the increased defensive focus from opponents could make it more difficult for them to secure victories.

115 charges

The looming shadow of the Premier League's 115 charges against City for alleged breaches of its financial rules continues to cast a cloud over the club, providing ammunition for its rivals. This unresolved issue presents a real possibility of impacting the outcome of the title race.

Recent disciplinary actions against other clubs, such as Nottingham Forest's four-point deduction for breaching the league's PSR rules and Everton's eight-point penalty for separate breaches, serve as a stark reminder of the potential consequences City could face. Even a minor points deduction announced before the season's end could significantly alter the title race, potentially favoring Arsenal or Liverpool. In a worst-case scenario, City could face relegation and the stripping of previous titles.

Experts caution that resolving such a complex case could take at least another year, if not longer. However, the looming threat of a sudden announcement keeps the issue at the forefront of discussions and adds uncertainty to City's future.

Never been done before

In the rich tapestry of English football history spanning 135 years, no team has achieved the remarkable feat of winning four league titles in a row. Despite attempts by illustrious clubs like Huddersfield Town, Arsenal, Liverpool, and Manchester United (on two occasions), the elusive accomplishment has remained just out of reach.

According to a source close to City, the opportunity to etch their name in the annals of football history as the first English team to secure four consecutive titles has served as a significant source of motivation for the squad. This ambition has led them to prioritize their focus on the league over defending their FA Cup and Champions League crowns. However, it's crucial not to underestimate the immense challenge of venturing into uncharted territory and accomplishing what no team has done before.

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