Out of the top 4 - the nightmare is real for Manchester United

The "Red Devils" themselves squandered their advantage in the top 4 race due to a series of disappointing results in the Premier League.

By: Leey

05/08/2023 03:35

MU's narrow 0-1 loss to West Ham in round 35 of the Premier League has left them with just a 1-point lead over Liverpool, who have played one game less. If they continue to perform inconsistently like this, Eric Ten Hag's team could potentially suffer defeat against any of their remaining four opponents.

From the obsession of the away achievement

MU suffered yet another defeat away from home. This marks their 8th loss on the opponent's turf in the current Premier League season. In 2023 alone, the Red Devils have already experienced their 7th winless match and their 5th loss out of 9 matches in the top league of the foggy country.

The sight of hundreds of Red Devils fans gradually leaving the London stadium while the final whistle had not yet blown, coupled with the intense frustration displayed by some loyal fans who remained until the MU players left the pitch, vividly illustrates the peril that Coach Ten Hag's team faces in securing a spot in the Top 4 of the English Premier League this season.

MU's season is gradually turning into a nightmare. Failure to secure a Champions League spot next season would render all of Ten Hag's team's efforts futile. In the past month, the "Red Devils" have been lacking confidence and enthusiasm on the field.

Manchester United had a disappointing result streak

It all began with a devastating 0-3 loss to Sevilla in the Europa League quarter-finals on April 20. Since then, MU has suffered 2 defeats and managed only 1 draw in their last 5 matches across all competitions. In the Premier League, they have only clinched a single victory against Aston Villa. With fewer matches played and fewer points than their top 4 competitors such as Newcastle, Brighton, and Liverpool, MU is now facing mounting pressure as these teams close in on their quest for Champions League qualification.

In the match against West Ham, MU displayed a lack of ideas in the first half and experienced physical decline in the second half. Throughout the 90 minutes, the "Red Devils" created only one clear scoring opportunity. Despite launching 19 shots, their xG level (expected goals) was a meager 1.19. MU dominated the game, boasting 65% possession and completing twice as many passes as their opponents (588 vs. 261 passes). However, Marcus Rashford, Wout Weghorst, and Bruno Fernandes failed to capitalize on these opportunities.

De Gea had a serious mistake in the match between West Ham and Man United

While it is easy to criticize De Gea after the defeat to West Ham, the performance of MU unveiled several underlying issues. The team has been unable to address their long-standing problem of poor finishing. When Rashford wasn't at his best, Antony squandered opportunities, and Bruno was kept in check. MU lacks effective alternatives, as Wout Weghorst or Anthony Martial fail to make a significant impact.

To the poor bravery at the decisive moment

If MU were to stumble again at Bournemouth, the current form of Ten Hag's team raises doubts about their ability to secure victories against rivals Wolves, Chelsea, and Fulham, even when playing at home. Are they just relying on wishful thinking?

During the most crucial stage of the season, MU appears to be gasping for breath and lacking vitality. Their defeat against West Ham resembles their 0-3 loss to Sevilla in the second leg of the Europa League quarter-finals earlier this season. This was MU's 57th match in a long and grueling season.

The signs of fatigue and a lack of resilience are evident as they have only managed to win 3 out of their last 8 matches in all competitions, with one victory coming via a penalty shootout against Brighton in the FA Cup semi-finals. The finish line seems distant, and their pursuit of a Top 4 position remains under threat.

Man United has self-sabotaged their advantage

MU has self-sabotaged its chances, similar to Arsenal in their title race with Manchester City. Nonetheless, they still have the power to determine their fate in the race for a Top 4 finish, unlike Liverpool or Brighton, who currently hold 55 points after playing 32 matches. Even after suffering a 0-2 defeat against Arsenal, Newcastle still maintains a 3-point lead over MU. Chess holds a significant advantage in the Top 4 battle, boasting a notably high goal difference of +32.

In the remaining four matches, Newcastle will have to face direct competitor Brighton in round 36 and a challenging encounter against Chelsea, much like MU.

The risk of being out from the top 4

Just a month ago, "Red Devils" fans were filled with confidence regarding their ticket to the Champions League for the next season. However, the situation has drastically changed within a few weeks, with Newcastle now holding the advantage with 2 points more than MU.

Liverpool, Tottenham, and Brighton, the three teams trailing behind MU, are currently 1, 6, and 8 points behind the "Red Devils," respectively. It's worth noting that Brighton has played two fewer matches than MU.

Premier League Table

Pos	Team	PTS	GP	W	D	L	GF	GA	+/-
1	Man City	82	34	26	4	4	89	31	58
2	Arsenal	81	35	25	6	4	83	39	44
3	Newcastle	65	34	18	11	5	61	29	32
4	Man Utd	63	34	19	6	9	49	41	8
5	Liverpool	62	35	18	8	9	67	42	25
6	Tottenham	57	35	17	6	12	64	57	7
7	Brighton	55	32	16	7	9	62	40	22
8	Aston Villa	54	35	16	6	13	46	43	3
9	Brentford	50	35	12	14	9	52	45	7
10	Fulham	45	34	13	6	15	45	46	-1
11	Chelsea	42	34	11	9	14	34	39	-5
12	Crystal Palace	40	35	10	10	15	35	46	-11
13	Wolverhampton	40	35	11	7	17	30	50	-20
14	Bournemouth	39	35	11	6	18	37	67	-30
15	West Ham	37	35	10	7	18	38	50	-12
16	Leicester	30	34	8	6	20	46	59	-13
17	Leeds	30	35	7	9	19	44	69	-25
18	Nottm Forest	30	34	7	9	18	30	62	-32
19	Everton	29	34	6	11	17	27	52	-25
20	Southampton	24	34	6	6	22	28	60	-32

If MU were to lose 2 and win 2 of the remaining 4 matches, they would accumulate 69 points. Liverpool, on the other hand, would only need to win 2 matches and draw 1 to achieve the same point total but surpass MU in goal difference (+25 compared to MU's +8). Consequently, despite having equal points, MU would fall out of the Top 4 due to the inferior goal difference, allowing Liverpool to secure their place.

In the scenario where MU loses 1, draws 1, and wins 2 matches, they would reach 70 points. However, this would require Liverpool to win all their remaining 3 matches, resulting in a total of 71 points for them. In this case, MU would also lose their Top 4 position.

If MU manages to draw 2 matches and win 2 matches, while Liverpool wins all their remaining 3 matches, both teams would end up with 71 points. At this stage, the number of goals scored and the number of defeats come into play, giving Liverpool the upper hand. Therefore, in order to control their own destiny, Ten Hag's team would need to lose just 1 match and win the remaining 3 matches. This would give them 72 points, one more than Liverpool assuming The Kop wins their remaining 3 matches.

The opportunity still remains

The Old Trafford team still holds the key to their fate in the race for the top 4. Their task is to secure victories in the remaining 4 Premier League matches against Bournemouth, Fulham, Chelsea, and Wolves. Most of these teams are likely to be battling relegation. However, if MU continues to perform poorly as they did in their defeats against Brighton and West Ham, they could continue to struggle.

Missing out on a Champions League spot for the next season would be a significant failure not only from a technical standpoint but also financially. A Champions League berth makes it easier to attract star players to join the team. Moreover, revenue from TV rights, prize money, and MU's media activities would also be enhanced.

The 2022/23 season, once considered a success, can turn into a nightmare for Ten Hag and his players. A series of poor results away from home or heavy defeats against teams like Man City, Brentford, and Liverpool have become unforgettable milestones for the "Red Devils" over the past 9 months. The League Cup triumph would easily be overshadowed if MU fails to secure the 4th place in the Premier League.

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Written by: Leey

Leey is the reporter for Betimate. She currently has a series of articles about football. She specializes in researching football data to come up with evaluations about the tournament and predictions about the matches.