Not Even an FA Cup Final Miracle Should Rescue Ten Hag

The Dutchman may still conclude this challenging season on a positive note, but an improbable victory over Manchester City will not conceal the team's dismal situation.

By: Anna Ciao

05/24/2024 04:33

The FA Cup has a rich history of surprising outcomes, but the last significant upset in a final occurred in 2013 when Manchester City fell to a shocking defeat against soon-to-be-relegated Wigan Athletic. Should Manchester City suffer a defeat against Manchester United in Saturday's showcase at Wembley, it would mark the most remarkable final upset since that time.

Both teams have just completed historic seasons, albeit for vastly different reasons. City achieved the remarkable feat of winning four consecutive league titles, a first in the 135-year history of English football. Meanwhile, United ended their campaign with their lowest-ever finish in the Premier League, coupled with a negative goal difference.

The Red Devils also set a new club record in the Premier League era by losing 14 matches, while their overall tally of 19 losses across all competitions is equally unenviable. In stark contrast, City suffered just four defeats, excluding penalty shootouts, with their last loss occurring over five months ago on December 6th. Additionally, with Rodri anchoring their midfield, a role he will fulfill at Wembley, City have remained undefeated since February 2023.

The disparity between the two teams, described by Erik ten Hag as "small margins" after the last Manchester derby, is staggering. City finished the season with 31 more points than United, scoring an additional 39 goals while conceding 24 goals fewer.

Victory unlikely but not impossible

As Manchester United grapple with injury concerns, anxiously awaiting updates on the fitness of key players Harry Maguire and Luke Shaw ahead of Saturday, Manchester City enjoy a clean bill of health, with the exception of the sidelined Ederson, who would have served as backup to Stefan Ortega regardless.

Many United supporters may dread the prospect of a one-sided affair at Wembley, reminiscent of the 6-1 drubbing City inflicted upon them at Old Trafford in 2011 or the 6-3 defeat at the Etihad Stadium early last season. However, finals often unfold as tight contests, with nerves playing a significant role. While a United victory appears improbable, it remains within the realm of possibility.

Under Erik ten Hag's guidance, United remained unbeaten in all three encounters with Liverpool this season, culminating in a memorable triumph in the FA Cup quarter-final. They have the potential to frustrate City, with Erling Haaland possibly squandering opportunities, while United boast match-winners in Alejandro Garnacho, Bruno Fernandes, and Marcus Rashford, capable of turning the tide in their favor.

Nevertheless, even if United were to achieve the seemingly unthinkable and secure FA Cup glory at City's expense, it should not serve as a guarantee for Ten Hag's continued tenure in the dugout.

Too many false dawns

While a hypothetical triumph over City would undoubtedly stand as one of Ten Hag's most remarkable achievements as United manager, it would essentially serve as the exception that confirms the rule. Anyone envisioning it as a potential turning point for him, a springboard for his team to attain significant accomplishments, may have overlooked the broader context of this season.

Throughout the campaign, United supporters have frequently heard the term 'turning point' following sporadic notable victories. However, more often than not, these fleeting moments of joy have proven to be mere illusions. Ten Hag initially invoked the notion after Scott McTominay's late heroics against Brentford, expressing hope for a revitalization: "It has to be a turning point and also a restart. These games give fuel to the dressing room," he remarked.

Subsequently, United secured narrow victories over Sheffield United and Copenhagen, both touted as triumphs against formidable opponents. Yet, these fleeting highs were swiftly overshadowed by dismal defeats, notably a 3-0 loss to City at Old Trafford followed by a humbling elimination from the Carabao Cup at the hands of a vastly inexperienced Newcastle side.

No turning point after all

The manager echoed similar sentiments following the cup triumph over Liverpool, expressing hope that it would infuse the team with energy and belief: "This could be the moment that gives the team energy and the belief that they can do amazing things. When you can beat Liverpool like this you can beat any opponent."

However, in the subsequent five games after stunning Jurgen Klopp's side, United faltered, failing to secure a single victory and conceding 12 goals. Even their hard-fought win at home against bottom-placed Sheffield United failed to spark a turnaround, as it was followed by a draw against Burnley, a humiliating defeat at Crystal Palace, and another loss at home to Arsenal.

This pattern extends to other significant victories United have experienced throughout the season. The impressive 3-0 win at Everton, one of their largest triumphs of the campaign, was marred by a chaotic 3-3 draw at Galatasaray and a dismal 1-0 defeat at Newcastle. Similarly, the 2-1 victory over Chelsea in December preceded a shocking 3-0 thrashing at home by Bournemouth. Even the thrilling comeback from a two-goal deficit against Aston Villa on Boxing Day was swiftly followed by defeat at Nottingham Forest.

Given this history, it would be naive to anticipate anything different in the improbable scenario that the FA Cup is adorned with red, white, and black ribbons on Saturday.

Excuses, not solutions

The only period of the season where United demonstrated any semblance of consistency was between January and February, during which they secured four consecutive wins in the Premier League and five in all competitions. Their second-longest streak comprised three victories.

Ten Hag has frequently cited United's injury woes, and to be fair, their most successful run coincided with having the majority of their key players fit. However, the momentum waned once Rasmus Hojlund suffered an injury in late February, forcing Fernandes to deputize up front against Fulham, leading to a downturn in results.

Injuries are an unavoidable aspect of modern football, and it's unrealistic to expect a team's top players to always be available. Elite coaches excel at finding solutions amidst personnel shortages. However, Ten Hag has often resorted to excuses rather than taking accountability for the team's injury woes.

Moreover, the manager has bemoaned the team's misfortune on the pitch, frequently referencing the defeat at Arsenal in September as a pivotal moment. He highlights instances such as a denied penalty for Hojlund and Garnacho's narrowly-offside disallowed goal as examples of crucial moments that didn't go their way.

Should be worse off

Despite their league position, United's performances and defensive vulnerabilities suggest they were fortunate to achieve their final standing. Finishing eighth in the Premier League, their lowest since 1990, with 60 points may seem respectable, but expected points calculations paint a different picture. According to expected points, which adjusts results based on expected goals, United should have fared much worse, ranking 15th with only 44 points.

This discrepancy reflects the Premier League table's top, with Manchester City still crowned champions ahead of Arsenal and Liverpool, while Sheffield United, Burnley, and Luton occupied the relegation spots.

United's victories have often been unconvincing, starting from their opening day win over Wolves, where Andre Onana avoided punishment for a late challenge, to their final home victory against Newcastle, where Anthony Gordon felt aggrieved for not receiving a penalty. Even their notable wins come with qualifiers. Despite winning 3-0, Everton dominated the first half at Goodison Park, while West Ham registered 19 shots to United's seven in a similar scoreline defeat at Old Trafford in February. Additionally, United struggled against lower-league opponents, drawing 2-2 against fourth-tier Newport County until the 68th minute and narrowly defeating Coventry in the FA Cup semifinals.

Van Gaal parallel

There's a striking similarity between United's current situation heading into Saturday and the circumstances surrounding their last FA Cup victory in 2016 against Crystal Palace. Louis van Gaal's failure to secure Champions League qualification left a cloud over his tenure, and rumors of Jose Mourinho's impending arrival circulated even before Jesse Lingard secured the Cup in extra time.

The timing was indeed unfortunate for the respected Dutch manager, but Lingard's decisive goal only emphasized that Van Gaal wasn't the right fit for United. While the news of his departure was harsh, it was a clear indication that change was needed.

Ten Hag has brushed off any parallels with that scenario, stating, "No, because I think they have common sense. They have seen that when you have 32 different back lines, when you lose eight centre-backs and when you don’t have a left full-back, it will have a negative impact on results."

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Written by: Anna Ciao

Anna Ciao is a sports content contributor at Betimate. Born and raised in a rural village in China, I have had a passion for football and various sports such as basketball, volleyball, badminton, from a young age. Along with diligent studies, I achieved an IELTS score of 8.0 in the English language, and I have become a content contributor specializing in sports, particularly football, as I am today. I hope that my articles are helpful to readers.